What It Measures
FINRA Margin Debt measures the total amount borrowed by investors against securities held in margin accounts at broker-dealers. This represents money borrowed to purchase securities, using existing portfolio holdings as collateral.
- The data includes:
- Debit Balances: Total amount owed by customers in margin accounts (the primary measure of margin debt)
- Free Credit Balances (Cash): Unused cash in customers' cash accounts
- Free Credit Balances (Margin): Unused cash in customers' margin accounts
Margin debt is reported by FINRA member firms pursuant to FINRA Rule 4521(d), which requires monthly reporting of customer margin balances on a settlement date basis.
Why It Matters
How to Interpret
- Excess Leverage (Key Metric): Margin Debt YoY% minus S&P 500 YoY%. This shows when leverage growth exceeds market growth:
- Above +30%: Major warning sign—leverage growing much faster than the market (preceded 2000, 2007, 2021 tops)
- +10% to +30%: Elevated—investors adding leverage faster than market appreciation
- -10% to +10%: Normal—leverage roughly tracking market moves
- Below -10%: Deleveraging—investors reducing exposure relative to market
Key Levels to Watch
| Level | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Above $900B | Historically elevated leverage, increased market risk |
| $700B-$900B | High margin debt, typical of bull market peaks |
| $500B-$700B | Moderate leverage levels |
| $300B-$500B | Below-average margin debt, often post-correction |
| Below $300B | Low leverage, potential capitulation or early recovery |
Historical Context
FINRA margin debt reached an all-time high of $936 billion in October 2021 before declining during the 2022 bear market. Previous peaks occurred in March 2000 ($278B before the dot-com crash), July 2007 ($381B before the financial crisis), and April 2015 ($507B). Margin debt tends to track the S&P 500 closely, often with exaggerated moves in both directions.
Limitations
- Margin debt data has several limitations:
- Monthly frequency means it lags real-time market conditions
- Does not capture leverage through options, futures, or other derivatives
- Does not include securities-based loans from banks
- Institutional leverage may differ from reported retail margin
- Free credit balances include both intentional cash holdings and proceeds awaiting reinvestment