Labor MarketMonthly

SPY & Nonfarm Payrolls

The total number of paid U.S. workers excluding farm employees, government employees, private household employees, and nonprofit organization employees.

SPY Price

$688.98

Monthly Job Change

Last Data: Dec 2025
Last Release: Jan 09, 2026
Next Release: Feb 06, 2026
+50K
3-mo avg: -22K

What It Measures

Nonfarm payrolls measures the change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. The data comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, also known as the "establishment survey," which samples approximately 670,000 worksites covering about 30% of all nonfarm payroll employees. Unlike the unemployment rate (from the household survey), nonfarm payrolls: - Counts jobs, not people (someone with two jobs is counted twice) - Includes only payroll employees (excludes self-employed) - Covers all ages (no minimum age requirement)

Why It Matters

Nonfarm payrolls is considered the most important monthly economic indicator because: **Direct Measure of Job Creation**: Shows actual hiring/firing activity by businesses, reflecting economic momentum. **Market Moving**: Often causes significant volatility in stocks, bonds, and currencies immediately upon release. **Fed Policy Driver**: Strong job growth may delay rate cuts, while weak growth may accelerate easing. **Revision Watch**: Initial estimates are frequently revised in subsequent months, sometimes significantly.

Key Levels

+250,000+
Very strong job growth, economy expanding rapidly
+150,000 to +250,000
Healthy job growth, sustainable expansion
+100,000 to +150,000
Moderate growth, keeping pace with population
+50,000 to +100,000
Below-trend growth, potential slowing
Below +50,000
Weak labor market, recession risk
Negative
Job losses, economic contraction

Data Sources

SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-01-22)

Payrolls: PAYEMS - Nonfarm Payrolls from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Units: Thousands of Persons, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly