SPY & NBER Recession Indicator
Binary indicator showing whether the U.S. economy is in a recession as determined by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
SPY Price
Recession Indicator
What It Measures
The NBER Recession Indicator (USREC) is a binary variable that equals 1 during months that the National Bureau of Economic Research has designated as recession periods, and 0 otherwise. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." They consider multiple indicators including: - Real personal income less transfers - Nonfarm payroll employment - Real personal consumption expenditures - Wholesale-retail sales adjusted for price changes - Industrial production - Household survey employment
Why It Matters
**Official Recession Dating**: NBER is the authoritative source for U.S. recession timing. **Historical Context**: Allows comparison of current conditions to past recession periods. **Market Patterns**: Helps identify market behavior patterns during economic contractions. **Policy Response**: Fed and fiscal policymakers respond aggressively to recessions.
Key Levels
Data Sources
SPY: S&P 500 ETF daily OHLCV data (1993-02-02 to 2026-01-22)
Recession: USREC - NBER Recession Indicator from National Bureau of Economic Research / FRED
Units: , ,